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this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2024
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A full-scale invasion of Syria by Turkey, without any political adjustments to the situation, would mean Turkish troops seizing land currently co-held (together with the AANES / SDF) by American troops. Without coordination, Turkish drone and artillery strikes would land near US troops, which would call in reinforcements to remove the drones and artillery.
Needless to say, one NATO ally going at territory held by another is a pretty bad idea.
So, in some parts of Syria, proceeding with their plan requires a US president - and most likely not Biden - to give them the green light and withdraw US special forces from SDF land. Basically, it requires the US to screw its allies in the fight against the Islamic State. Which would not be out of character for Trump, since Kurds cannot "pay him for protection". The protection was based on principles (the Autonomous Administration of North-Eastern Syria was the only player in the region that tried sticking to democracy and human rights) and a common enemy (ISIS).
I hope all of this doesn't happen, but if I were the Kurds, I'd be keeping drone batteries charged and knocking on every diplomatic door for assistance.
In case of things hitting the fan, it might be useful to remember a link to the Kurdistan Red Crescent - Heyva Sor a Kurdistanê. (They can't supply drone batteries, but deliver medical and humanitarian aid to the region.)
Tbh this is precisely how I expect things to play out over the next couple months. And I fucking hate it.
Biden hasn't proved to be an ally either. He might not support Turkey but he isn't going to allow US troops to return fire. It will be like the UN Outposts Israel just goes around.
As far as I know, procedures for returning fire don't require calling the president. There already was an incident about a week ago - they just shot down the drone that threatened them.
Basic stuff like that they can do. But stray artillery rounds aren't going to get a response. Anything more than their rifle or short range anti air requires permission from higher up. And even those are on a short leash because the local commander will be under orders to hold fire unless they're actually attacked.
On the other side there will be an American officer telling the Turks exactly where American troops are and acting as the first line of deconfliction if there are any mistakes. Turkey will listen to that officer because of the balance of power in the US-Turkey relationship and the knowledge that the US is capable of disabling their entire military overnight.
It's not just in character for Trump, it's something he has already done. He abandoned the Kurds in 2019 when Turkiye launched an offensive against them
They're going to co-ordinate with the Americans. Erdogan is going to ask Trump "can I go kill some Kurds on Syria", and Trump will go "sure". That's what happened last time.
The US using and abandoning Kurdish people is a repeated pattern long since before Trump. Heck, the US helped Saddam Hussein massacre thousands of Kurdish people in Iraq in the deadliest nerve gas attack in recorded history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halabja_massacre
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq_during_the_Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War
Also the DAANES you mention as "trying to stick to democracy and human rights" runs torture camps and mass executions and the US helps funnel new people into them.
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/04/syria-mass-death-torture-and-other-violations-against-people-detained-in-aftermath-of-islamic-state-defeat-new-report/
Thanks for pointing that out.
Until this report, it was my impression that they tried sticking to democracy and human rights - but had a problem with recruiting underage people, which they admitted and dealt with.
This report is new to me, so I think it might be new to others - I recommend it.