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A) No one.
B) Canada and a subsequent western coalition.
C) Latin America and a surprise coalition.
D) Some mix of the above.
The thing is, Taiwan is probably going to get invaded if Trump invades Mexico.
I've been hearing about the impending Chinese invasion of Taiwan since Dick Cheney started chewing on that bone in the 1990s.
We've dropped bombs across half of North Africa since we started mainlining "Taiwan will be invaded". We've manufactured five major famines - Haiti, Sudan/Ethiopia, Libya, Afghanistan, and Gaza - since then. We've toggled the "bankrupt Cuba through sanctions while we run a torture camp from the naval base on their island" switch at least twice since then. We've backed regime changes in Bolivia, Argentina, Brazil, Honduras, El Salvador, plus a couple failed ones in Venezuela and Chile since then. We've gerrymandered our own Congress three separate times since then.
I gotta say... maybe it takes one to know one. But it's not China the Taiwanese seem like they should be worried about. Just ask the folks in South Korea, who are cleaning up after their third near-reversion-to-dictatorship in twenty years, under reactionary presidents we supported. Or Indonesia and the Philippines, which seem unable to get out from beneath our proxies' jack boots.
Add to that the fact China hasn't even TRIED to invade Taiwan since the separation in 1949. So it's clearly a difficult task.
But all of what you've said was before Xi came to power, he's worked hard to knock out all serious competition for leadership in the party ranks to the point he's able to extend his term indefinitely.
...and I'm not saying he's a bad leader. But he does seem more intent on this (rather difficult) goal than previous leaders ...and it is a difficult goal, largely due to the cliff faces and wide marshy beaches.
Which is why China recently developed large landing barges loosely based off some British WW2 technology (now with fold out bridges on them, to cross the beaches completely):
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-building-fleet-of-special-barges-suitable-for-taiwan-landings/
Should those prove effective when testing occurs later this year, it will greatly expand landing location. So there's a bit of a technological arms race going on. Add in Ukraine proving the importance of drones in modern warfare and you have a technological landscape that makes previously difficult invasion plans more possible.
All this said, I personally think that China's claim over Taiwan is somewhat legitimate. Or at least more legitimate than Russian claims over Ukraine, or American claims over Mexico.
Taiwan (which is just 150 kms off China's coast) was a western backed dictatorship under the right wing KMT authoritarians for 25+ years, even today one of the two main parties in Taiwan is still the "Chinese Nationalist Party" (the same party that ran the dictatorship)... Also Taiwan isn't even the official name of the country, it's officially the "Republic Of China"... Which seems like, trolling.
But yeah, I support democracies, and think China should be more democratic.. I'd love it if Taiwan could be more democratic (change its name, kick out the KMT)... But yeah, seems more possible than ever that China can invade, which would change the world order drastically as the Western foothold on Taiwan allows the west to monitor/blockade shipping.
The primary means by which the Chinese government has attempted to influence Taiwanese domestic politics has been diplomatic and economic. They've expanded their trade relations and increased foreign investments. They've relaxed travel restrictions and even subsidized the cost of travel between the island and the mainland.
One of the recent flashpoints in China/Taiwan relations in recent years was in 2019 when the Hong Kong government implemented a program for extraditing Chinese nationals to Taiwan for criminal prosecution. This was in response to a grisly murder and subsequent flight from the law by the murderer. By attempting to repatriate Chan Tong-kai to Taiwan for the crime of murdering his pregnant girlfriend, the Hong Kong government inadvertently set off months of violent protests.
If you look at the influential model of the Chinese diplomatic core and economic model, they don't need to establish a military presence in Taiwan. They just need the Taiwanese public to stop seeing Chinese businessmen and politicians as existential threats to their safety.
That's already happened across West Africa. And it is an increasingly common sentiment across the South Pacific, the Middle East, and the European South. To quote Dr Lubinda Haabazoka, Director of the University of Zambia Graduate School of Business and former President of the Economics Association of Zambia
Oh China has all sorts of influence over Taiwan who are their largest trading partner and their traditional gateway to the west. There's lots of reasons not to invade.
But leaders aren't always rational.
glances Putin-ward
No kidding.
Nevertheless, the modern Chinese state seems more rational and less belligerent than most.
More rational than most is not a tough hurdle. The average in state rationality is something like Kazakhstan
Yeah, I agree.
I think he can only be stopped from the inside. Idk if that will happen though
Come on, high cholesterol!