this post was submitted on 12 Oct 2025
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[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 113 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (7 children)

It is honestly hilarious how dumb the financial industry is for all its mystique, like the stock market hasn't crashed yet? It really makes it obvious how much of a pseudo-science Economics is, it is only useful to rationalize the behavior of the ultrawealthy, spoiled and stupid, not to hold them to any kind of account or ideological consistency.

The US economy is fucked and the fact that so many finance and economics people aren't screaming the alarm at the top of their lungs tells you everything you need to know about the intellectual integrity of these people.

[–] EightBitBlood@lemmy.world 79 points 3 days ago (8 children)

Hey there. I've got an economics degree and work in business. I've been literally telling people how we're in a massive bubble, propped up by fraud and snake oil for years now. The economists you're thinking about on TV have been enshitified just like everything else in the US. It got so bad someone created a Jim Cramer ETF that collected all his stock advice but did the OPPOSITE of what he said. That ETF had a 12% return in 2024.

So the advice you are hearing from "economists" is advice they were paid for. Real economists have seen the writing on the wall for years. We're spectacularly fucked. Like there's almost complete red flags across the board, and the stock market is likely captured and fraudulent and has been since 2008.

Nvidia's price is just propped up by all the AI investment, and it's worth is propping up others like Microsoft. The whole thing is an obvious ponzi scheme as total value in the market exceeds our GDP by 218% now. This literally means the stock market is at least 118% inflated bullshit.

Inflated because the SEC has taken 17 years to roll out the CAT system to prevent fraud that was created as a response to the 2008 crisis. 17 years, and the "fix" TV hosts cheered was so great in 2008 to prevent another crisis is just now as of 2025 kinda being used. I say kinda because it's not fully integrated, doesn't need to be used, and is currently reporting billions of fraudulent failures and trades nearly every day.

The system has been captured and tortured for years and anyone that knew what they were looking at and were vocal about it were laughed at by experts paid to disagree. I've been saying all the above for years, and people thought I was insane. Now you think all economists are insane because they've been paid to sane wash the bullshit I've been talking about for years.

The problem isn't economists, it's that you believe the people on TV are the experts instead of industry plants. Actual experts, they get ignored. All the time. Because they can't compete with the amount of idiots on TV saying the opposite.

So no offense, but stop listening to the people on TV who call themselves expert economists, expert investors, etc and just listen to someone who's actually experienced in that field. My opinion has been discarded for years as I've made hand over fist betting against our economy. Advice I've freely shared yet always been ignored because it goes against what the TV says.

Anyway, here's the next 3 years:

Massive recession turns into a depression. Starting now, but this Monday is going to be a pretty rough day for the stock Market. Maybe not another Black Monday that started the original crash in 29, but we're getting close.

Likely by this November, if not tomorrow, a stock market crash will happen. It's completely propped up, so just a matter of time until the money runs out. Seeing the dip in stocks and crypto at the same time last week screams massive liquidity crisis (big companies needing more liquidity to prop up the current ponzi scheme of AI.) And there's not many places left where liquidity can be found.

Anyway, the value of the dollar has already decreased by 10% this year. Which is an astronomically fucked thing for no one to be talking about.

So just FYI, whatever savings you do have, consider converting some of it into property / vehicles / assets with value as they will each retain their worth as the value of the dollar looses it. Advice you'll never hear on TV, but is actually viable if you want your money to have any of the same value it has now as idiots ruin everything.

[–] IronBird@lemmy.world 10 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

eh, my guess is this bull market doesn't stop until trump croaks.

the day he dies spy jumps 10% and then it craters 30%+ eod.

corruption and war are bullish as fuck

[–] SupahRevs@lemmy.world 1 points 2 days ago

https://finaeon.com/the-nazis-and-the-stock-markets/ This is how I see it. We've had an easy money environment since 2008. Wealth has piled up at the top. They will want to be part of "winners" in the captured economy under authoritarianism. Look at Palantir, Tesla, Fermi... Rich people are betting on connected companies, the rest of the economy will suffer but that is irrelevant to the gains made by the top winners.

[–] nymnympseudonym@piefed.social 11 points 3 days ago (1 children)

TBH you sound exactly like Peter Schiff for the last 15 years

[–] EightBitBlood@lemmy.world 24 points 3 days ago (1 children)

The only thing we underestimated is how much of this country the financial industry was willing to destroy to stay solvent. "Too big to fail" was actually "too big to stop." The enshitification of all things in the last decade is what was collectively given up in exchange for US financial solvency. This leaves the US with no products of worth, just propped up businesses that are capable of canabalise other businesses faster than everyone else. The problem is that game of musical chairs ends when there's nothing left to canablise. Look at the mega mergers happening now, and you'll see that there's not many bodies left to eat.

[–] nymnympseudonym@piefed.social 3 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Not very quantitative. Again... can't tell if this is Peter Schiff, Adam Taggart, James Rickards, or any of the others who have predicted the imminent collapse of the USD for the past ~20 years

Not saying you can't be right, just that you're not informative

[–] EightBitBlood@lemmy.world 12 points 3 days ago (1 children)

Maybe describe what would qualify as informative?

I thought describing the hole in the ship making it sink, how that hole is being repaired, and how the supplies to keep repairing it are running low was a pretty informative take on whether there's a hole in the ship or not.

And I don't feel those supplies will stay strong now that literally no one in the world wants to trade with us because of Tariffs.

I mean, as far as informative goes, the scene in Ferris Buellers Day Off where the class sleeps through Ben Steins economics lecture was on how Tariffs were an excellerent that helped cause the Great Depression. Now we're doing that again why exactly?

Can you explain any of the current US trade policies in a way that makes sense?

If you want informative: the people making all the decisions are making the wrong ones without any guardrails or adults for the first time in 100 years of US history. The last time this same thing happened, almost exactly, it was followed by the great depression at the start of Black Monday, when the US stock market collapsed. A collapse we are very likely seeing the start of due to the sudden move towards massive liquidity last week.

All further compounded by massive unemployment, a decrease in the value of the dollar, inflation, and yeah, Tariffs.

Idiots doing all that at once is new. And the last time they did it the same way, the country took a World War 2 to recover.

[–] nymnympseudonym@piefed.social -1 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

Quantitative os informative. Are you looking at M3? Default rates? Comparing to prior economic situations?

All I see is like, your opinion, man

[–] EightBitBlood@lemmy.world 8 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 children)

Comparing to prior economic situations?

YES. I just did that.

Default rates?

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

Sure. Those are pretty bad right now too:

The average risk of default for US public companies reached a post-global financial crisis high of 9.2% at the end of 2024 and is predicted to remain elevated throughout the year, according to forecasts by Moody’s Asset Management Research team.

Business default rates are now as high as they were in 2008 post crisis.

M3 and defaults are what you see change when the crash is happening by the way, not before. But when it does keep crashing, I sincerely doubt we'll have any real numbers until months or years later seeing as how inflated the last two jobs reports were under Trump.

How about the Buffet index?

One of the men who has become the richest from Wallstreet has spent the last several months and years selling most of his stocks. The Buffet index is one he invented to determine how volilalitle the market is in comparing the US stock market value to GDP.

Basic math says getting a stock market valuation at 100% of our national GDP is impossible, but with the power of decades of defecit spending, we can definitley inflate stock prices above the maximum capacity of what our country is capable of spending in a year. Now to 217%. (The Buffet Index).

Which is why Warren Buffet is selling large portions of his stocks: he thinks there's problems in the markets. Especially when they're valued at more than twice what we can make as a nation in a year. Anything above 100% is basically bullshit made up value.

For all intents and purposes, the market is already crashing like I've said. It's just a matter of how many dead cat bounces we have left.

[–] ZMoney@lemmy.world 1 points 3 days ago

So I'll finally be able to afford a house?

[–] confusedbytheBasics@lemmy.world 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

property / vehicles / assets

Is this why every ad I see lately is from Carvana asking me to sell my car?

Are there any assets that don't require a bunch of maintenance you'd recommend?

[–] EightBitBlood@lemmy.world 1 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

100%, thats why a lot of companies are trying to buy houses / cars / etc. For the last few years the writing has definitley been on the wall.

I do have one recommendation for an asset that requires no maintenance, but a lot of people aren't going to be happy when I say Bitcoin and Ethereum are worth investing in now more than ever.

Both are fairly simple to own, you don't need to buy a whole coin, just a fraction, and self-owned wallets are still legal. (Which let's you stake your crypto for a nice 5% or more return). I've made 12% staking Cardano, beating nearly every bank savings account in existence. It's very easy to do the same with Ethereum.

Crypto in general is certainly full of scams, but the foundational tech and the coins that come from it are certainly worth holding now more than basically any other currency. All currencies are basically tied to the Dollar for dumb and complex reasons, so crypto is literally the only thing that will not lose value as the dollar does.

Not much maintenance to hold it either. Just do research to be secure with your wallet. I hate Coinbase, but they are certainly the best at getting you started. Diversifying into crypto is likely safer than any other physical asset too at the moment as there will always be a buyer. (Not as easy for a car to become liquid)

And a note: for anyone that wants to argue about crypto, please understand I see it as something that is both a currency AND commodity. So know that I belive it has the strengths and weaknesses of both. Most crypto debates categorize crypto as either one or the other to focus on the weaknesses in each. Yet crypto has a return better than any other investment in the last 10 years, likely because there's value in something that works as both a currency and commodity.

Anyway, it's probably not the answer you wanted, but Crypto, specifically Bitcoin and Ethereum are a great way to diversify against uncertainty when bluechip markets are now as uncertain as crypto ones.

Next best after that is appliances, but same issue with maintenance.

[–] confusedbytheBasics@lemmy.world 1 points 17 hours ago

Thanks for the reply. I came to opposite conclusions and sold all my crypto earlier this year. It seems to me its value is entirely based around propping up the USD. Finance is now using BTC to avoid regulations and inflate other paper assets. I expect BTC to plummet harder and faster than USD does.

As someone who grew up poor but still has had mostly peace and stability in my life I struggle to understand why people intentionally cause strife. :(

[–] ghost_towels@sh.itjust.works 5 points 3 days ago (2 children)

Thank you for your post! Could you explain about tomorrow? Specifically what you think will happen, or what is special about the day. It’s much appreciated!

[–] EightBitBlood@lemmy.world 3 points 2 days ago

It's a bit complicated, but in short, today is a bank holiday both for the US and for Japan. And the Japanese Yen carry trade is likely unwinding in that time.

Last Friday, the stock market fell pretty hard as well as the crypto markets. This means people were selling what they had of each at a very high rate. When that happens, financial institutions have a bunch of mechanisms to absorb that loss and redirect it.

But one of the biggest mechanisms to do that, the Japanese Yen Carry Trade, has been unwinding over the weekend.

This is not only a bad thing, but is also what caused the 2008 crisis to accelerate.

Here's a quick overview of what that is, and what's happening to it now:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/unwinding-yen-carry-trade-dawn-new-monetary-era-harshad-shah-bgnvf

For thirty years, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, with interest rates often at or below zero. This created a perverse incentive for the global financial community: borrow massive amounts of Japanese yen for almost no cost, convert it into other currencies like the US dollar or euro, and invest those proceeds in higher-yielding assets abroad—US Treasuries, European bonds, Brazilian debt, Asian equities, and real estate. This trade was the quiet lifeblood of global asset prices. It suppressed borrowing costs for governments and corporations worldwide, inflated valuations, and encouraged risk-taking.

So, the Yen Carry Trade was a way for big institutions to safely buy Yen and convert it to other high yielding assets. When the market is going down, as it was on Friday, instutions would buy Yen at less than 0% interest then divert it to high yield assets that would offset their losses. In short (and simple example), if the stock market fell 10%, they'd buy Yen, then use it to get some high yield assets at above a 10% return.

But! The Yen carry trade ALSO "inflated valuations." Companies could use this trade to hide the actual value of their assets. Usually through combining a bunch of other instruments, including some illegal mechanisms that are still legal in the US like naked short selling.

So, the Yen carry trade let Wallstreet inflate their valuations to lure in investors. AND offset losses when they were being too risky.

So the question is: how much longer can they pretend to be valued higher? How much longer can they offset losses and still keep going?

Seeing as how the Japanese Yen Carry trade is a key to both, it's a critical tool needed for companies not to collapse back to their actual value.

And as of this weekend, that tool no longer works. As the BOJ (Bank of Japan) raised their interest rates to a level never before seen. Because:

Japan is now confronting persistent, above-target inflation. This economic sea change has forced the BOJ to cautiously abandon its yield curve control policy, allowing Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields to rise. The 40-year JGB yield's surge from 1.5% to 3.4% in just two years is not a mere statistical blip; it is one of the fastest and most significant monetary shifts in the modern era.

The implications are profound. For a Japanese pension fund or insurance company, the calculus has fundamentally changed. Why shoulder the currency risk and geopolitical uncertainty of US Treasuries when you can now secure a attractive, risk-free yield at home in your own currency? The logical, and indeed necessary, response is repatriation.

Repatriation = Permanant death of the Yen carry trade.

So in short, the tool every major US institution has been using to inflate their own values and cover their losses will likely no longer be working as of today. And that's after a very rough Friday for them. The tool they usually use to recover from that kind of loss is now broken.

Since it's a bank Holiday, we won't know until tomorrow, but with how high silver and gold prices are getting, that tends to indicate smoke before the fire. The last time Japan raised their rates like this it was followed by the 2008 crisis, and the 1998 crisis before it.

So whatever happens next likely isn't great, but that will depend on how honest Wall Street has been since Covid. And from what I can see, they have basically created another "Big Short" situation as they never learned the first time.

Imo, outside the above, and in addition to it, ETFs are a time bomb just like mortgages were in 2008. There is very likely a looming ETF crisis similar to the mortgage crisis with just a matter of time before they explode, and something like the Yen Carry Trade unwinding could cause it.

If that happened, a depression event is almost certain. As ETFs have secretly replaced everyone's 401ks in the last decade. So instead of losing an overpriced mortgage, if there is an ETF bubble, and it pops, people lose their retirements.

Which is something that very much could be starting tomorrow. Depending on how many other tools are left to contain what the Yen carry trade was doing. AND how fraudulent ETFs are. But that's a very big other conversation.

In short - Wallstreet has one less cheat code to prevent their bullshit from leaking out into the market and rest of the world like it did in 2008. We'll know tomorrow how needed those cheat codes were.

[–] Strider@lemmy.world 3 points 3 days ago (1 children)

I see it the same but they always find ways to circumvent a crash and fuck it up even worse. So I've been waiting, even hoping, but it's not happening.

[–] phutatorius@lemmy.zip 4 points 3 days ago

I see it the same but they always find ways to circumvent a crash and fuck it up even worse.

Yeah, that'll happen until they can't anymore.

[–] gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

the dollar is a fiat currency and only as strong as the FED's ability to tax american citizens. if the US should ever break apart for any reason, the dollar would become completely worthless. and guess what's about to happen in the next 10 years or so...

[–] EightBitBlood@lemmy.world 1 points 2 days ago

Well said. Additionally, the Dollar also gets weaker when there's more of them that have been printed AND those new dollars aren't being spent. We printed a whole lot of money in 2020 and after, and now basically none of those Dollars are being spent:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1V

I don't think the US is going to break apart, but it's very likely the current administration twill try to invent a new US currency to hide the failing Dollar.

Their recent Crypto scams indicate they are trying to mint an actual US Dollar Crypto coin, which would be even worse than the US splitting apart imo. Mostly because that would turn existing dollars into Micky Mouse bucks that have no actual value. The US becomes a Peter Piper Pizza place you can never leave because they run on US dollar "tokens" instead of the rest of the world that runs on real currency.

[–] drhodl@lemmy.world 1 points 2 days ago

Thank you for taking the time to write this. I appreciate the information!

[–] henfredemars@infosec.pub 33 points 3 days ago (1 children)

There is some rational market behavior. Look to the skyrocketing price of assets like gold. A significant part of the market recognizes that something is very wrong. Gold isn't supposed to skyrocket while the stock market is generally improving. This reflects a significant fall in investor confidence.

[–] IronBird@lemmy.world 0 points 3 days ago

it suggests dumb emotional traders are buying gold when it's overpriced, gold insiders will sell enmasse sooner or later

[–] IronBird@lemmy.world 10 points 3 days ago

economics doesnt run the stock/futes markets, gamblers do

and i guarantee you anyone whose worked in finance long at a serious level knows this very well. nobody big will scream the alarm until they're positioned for the crash.

the banks won't do shit though, because they fully expect uncle sam to bail them out on the taxpayers dime again like they have many times before (and they probably will)

[–] Rhaedas@fedia.io 13 points 3 days ago

I would suggest that all major crashes happen in part because no one wants to be the first to pull out of the corruption and lose money while everyone else keeps gaining. So it's a constant race until something actually breaks, and then it's a mad scramble to get out of the house on fire.

Basically, if everyone was (or was forced to) be honest, they would see the signs early and act to avoid crashing it all. But they aren't, so they don't.

That's a simplistic take on it, but the short is that the experts in the financial world see what's happening, know it can't end well, but they choose to try and profit while they can, hoping they'll get theirs first.

Hell, it's just like anyone who deals with Trump. Knowing full well how many people get burned from being associated, but they always think that it will be different for them and they'll be fine.

[–] Tollana1234567@lemmy.today 6 points 3 days ago

its basically clout for the rich and wealthy, to hide behind.

[–] fluxion@lemmy.world 7 points 3 days ago

Tesla stock is still about as high as it's ever been. Let that sink in.

[–] phutatorius@lemmy.zip 2 points 3 days ago

Stock-market speculation has very little to do with economics. Very few investors use economic models when determining what to invest. Your argument is like trying to discredit the laws of physics because drunk drivers ignore them.