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this post was submitted on 20 May 2024
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Today is a slightly better day for the people of Iran. Especially for the women of Iran.
I'm not well-versed in Iran's politics, but is there actually any hope that his replacement will be any better for the Iranian people? I'd have to imagine that whoever is next in line would already be very much aligned with his existing policies.
Iran is religious lead, so unlikely. The real leader is Ali Khamenei whos title is "Supreme Leader"
Also to add that Raisin was groomed to take his place, and apparently the guy Raisi was grooming to take his was also in the helicopter.
Khamenei is 85 years old.
That is actually pertinent information. If the supreme leader is seen as weak at 85, and the next two steps on the ladder are now vacant... Well let's just say that nature abhores a vacuum.
But it won't necessarily get better
Historically, things often have to get worse before they get better.
Is that like whatever you are looking for is always in the last place you looked?
In the coming days we’ll see the course. Last year there were feminist revolts and protests, many women and girls were executed for them. It’s clear there’s still a divided political will, but the theocracy has maintained its monopoly on violence. If anything is going to change for the better it’s likely going to involve some assassinations
In the end, it won't matter much. I'm not going to go so far as to say the President is a figurehead, but the real power in Iran comes from Ali Khamenei.
The seat is going to another conservative politician, so probably not. One can always hope, though. Iranian civilians would really benefit from a more relaxed leader. Though the supreme leader is really the one running the show. Perhaps he will also get on a really old helicopter, flying in the extreme fog and rain, over a remote mountain range like this guy did.
No. It’s a theocracy and he doesn’t hold supreme power. Revolution in Iran will be a bloodbath. The best case scenario would’ve been something akin to the liberalization of Spain post Franco, but that’s highly unlikely.
Theocracies aren’t known for their long term stability, but Iran is known for its being absolute hell to invade. The regime is likely to starve itself of something, be it food, money, reproductive labor, or skilled labor. It will be slow, turbulent, and ugly
My assumption is economic in that they will continue to spend as oil and hydrocarbon fuels dependency drops worldwide as it's replaced with renewables. It seems dogmatic organizations like religions, theocracies, etc tend to do poorly with incremental change, but we'll see over the next couple decades. 30% of their trade is with China so it largely depends on Chinese markets and how/if they decide to change as the markets change.
But it’s important to remember economic collapse doesn’t end a totalitarian regime. It weakens it, but so long as they can feed enough of their people for revolution to not be a matter of survival and they have the arms to stop everyone else it becomes a matter of their will and their ability to maintain internal control.
The real blame here lies with the US, especially the Trump presidency. In Iran moderates were in power until Trump unilaterally ended the Iran nuclear deal. That was a clear signal to Iran, that moderation doesn’t bring them forward.
Nope, he was worse than the previous guy. He'll be replaced by another approved prick.
It is just a parade of dudes with a beard wearing a black dress screaming about who they want their skydaddy to kill.
i am sure america will murder anything that is better just like last time.
1959 CIA removed the democratic elected Mohammed Mossadegh
Fucktard Nixon called the slaughterer Reza Pahlavi he installed a friend.
so for me america is the only real problem here. AGAIN.