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this post was submitted on 05 Aug 2023
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The mere fact he's still likely to win the next election is such an embarassment. I'm not American but it's genuinely worrying if you're European too. You just know he'll cave to Russia within days of being elected.
If you're Ukrainian it's horrible. Putin has no motive to stop the war till after the election. If Trump wins, he'll do his best to fuck over Ukraine and help Putin.
And I know there's a sizeable amount of Trump supporters in Taiwan and Trump likes to go on about being tough on China, but given Trump admires Xi, those in power have got to be worried about the prospect of a second Trump term too.
On the plus side, I hope that Europe has finally realized we can't rely on the US, and need to rebuild our defense industry. Obviously, that doesn't necessarily serve US interests, as we may be forced to side with China on certain issues against a beligerent US administration.
Where are you getting this "fact that he's likely to win" ? He didn't win the last one and he's worse off this time. Also there are loads of new voters who are finally old enough to vote that are sick of all the anti-abortion anti-LGBTQ stuff the right has been pushing the last 4 years. If you regurgitate that rhetoric it's more likely to happen.
Aggregated polling data:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/
Trump is invariably within the margin of error. Add a bit of election interference, a third candidate to siphon votes, some gerry mandering, a bit of help from a partisan supreme court, ...
I have a related degree.
An important way republicans will try to win the election for Trump, is to target democratic voters with propaganda which suggests that Biden is certain to win or that he's more right wing than he actually is, thereby lowering democratic turnout.
They know they won't convince young voters to vote conservative, they know they won't win majority support, so they'll try to convince progressive to not bother voting at all.
The polls are only showing that because he hasn't clinched the nomination yet so the huge number of people who dislike both candidates don't feel like they have to make a decision yet. Once that happens, I think we'll see a big drop in his numbers. I could be wrong, but I'm usually not, at least when it comes to politics.
If you look at actual polls, you'll find the number of undecided voters is surprisingly low.
Eg. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2024-trump-and-biden-on-course-for-tight-rematch/
An august 1-2 poll of Michigan voters, 44% Trump, 44% biden, 8% other, just 5% undecided. It's unlikely they'll all split Biden, and even they disproportionately did, a Trump win would still be well within the margin of error.
Biden isn't an unknown quantity. Trump isn't an unknown quantity. Voters know what they stand for by now, they know what they'll be like as president. And yet it's still close.
Let's put it this way, I admire your optimism if you assume Biden will win easily.
We will know soon enough. I was right when I said that there wouldn't be a "red wave" during the midterms, in spite of what the polls said, and I'm positive that I am right when I say that the polls aren't giving us a clear picture of what to expect of a third Trump presidential campaign.
Again, what I think we're seeing in the polls reflects a dislike for both candidates, but not a dislike that's evenly distributed or felt with the same degree of vehemence.
Teasing out that difference is difficult using traditional polling methods, but it becomes obvious when one looks at how many Americans find Trump objectively abhorrent.
My prediction is that Biden defeats Trump handily, not in a landslide, but convincingly enough to permanently show Trump the door.
I may be wrong. We will see.
The polls didn't say there would be a red wave. Aggregated polling suggested there was a 42% chance the democrats won at least the house.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/
Same thing happened in 2016, when IRC polling suggested Trump had something like a 1/3 chance of winning, but media painted a Clinton win being a certainty.
Be more wary of how the media reports on polling.
There won't be any gerrymandering for President unless they are able to change State boarders. Voter suppression in targeted areas however is possible.
Gerrymandering doesn't affect presidential elections. Only the lower house of Congress and the state legislative branch.
That's their plan. Anyone posting bullshit like that is someone I'll be immediately suspicious of. Trump will lose again and maybe it'll be blow that sends his racist cult back under the rocks they came from. Everyday boomers are dropping to old age and younger people are hitting voting age. The last election was their last chance and they knew it, that's why they all knew what he was trying to do and they went with it. Soon we can start repairing the damage they've done and start working ourselves back out of the 60's and look to the future.
I agree but we have to get and actually vote!
And also Q-Anon isn’t a thing anymore, which was a base of his firmest believers, fighting against Hillary and others, who were said to be eating children in a Washington Pizzeria. But I really ask myself what on earth could make people hold on to this criminal and vote for him…
I'm sorry to say it but Q-Anon is absolutely still a thing. They aren't as loud but I know at least 1 person in my town who rants about Q-Anon type shit.
@Hyperreality @Reverendender
Try being Canadian and living next door to this crap, with the most porous borders in the world between us.
*sigh*
Try living in southern Canada (Minnesota) and not having a college degree so Canada most likely won't let me immigrate.
Try being disabled so no country will take you regardless your qualifications
Or mid fifty's and broke
Laughs in Autism
Well worst case scenario a family friend who draft dodged and joined the IRA back in the 70s told be how to make an "Irish surprise" as he put it.
As long as there’s no wall to hold you up you could try to sneak in illegally.
Reading your comment I am thinking that Mexico might pay for a border after all - to keep Americans out.
Expect refugees from the US when Trump wins.
As an American I hope your last paragraph is true. Ive come to hate America, better yet American, not the land, it's clear people, nature, and humanity are low on their list. Another country should break our fake image of worth. I hope someday I can leave America or this place changes completely.
If another country doesn't break our fake image than another politician will come along to use us people and motivate us to live for false hope that continues to rape our lives.
It goes deeper than politics... It's our businesses and business culture too. As well as the people that normalize the over-consumption consumerism lifestyle.
I've experienced both sides, mainstream and street life and they are both the same... The successful in both cultures use the same abhorrent methods to gain power.
You guys are doing a great job of that on your own 😥
To the rest of the world maybe, but the hyper patriotic lunkheads here in the States legitimately believe in American superiority.
The most depressing part of it all is that if Trump is in the rush to win, neoliberals would still blame the stupidity of the people, or anything else, except themselves. IF Trump sucks and is about to win, imagine how much Biden sucks
I am absolutely TIRED of politicians never having to do any "Mea Culpa" and blaming everything else except themselves for losing an election, I am tired of neoliberals shitting on people and then say "If you don't vote for us then the world is gonna burn"
Biden went to power with Universal Basic Income, Debt Pardon, Universal Healthcare, and was able to achieve NOTHING, 0, NADA, NYET
I am tired of the only argument of the neoliberals worldwide is always the boogeyman on the other team, instead of some kind of merit they could have