this post was submitted on 20 Feb 2025
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Summary

NASA has lowered the estimated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in December 2032 to 1.5%, down from 3.1% a day earlier. The European Space Agency's (ESA) estimate stands at 1.38%.

The asteroid, 40-90 meters wide, could cause significant city-level destruction but not a global catastrophe.

The projected impact corridor spans the Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.

NASA also estimates a 0.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon.

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[–] SlothMama@lemmy.world 42 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

What do we need to get this to %100?

[–] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 26 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

It's probably made up of dense materials like iron. Let's pile all the earth's magnets at the White House!

[–] hungryphrog@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 points 3 weeks ago

I'll give mine, as long as someone helps with the shipping!

[–] commander 21 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (4 children)

As someone who's played MMOs, 1.5% chance is actually pretty high.

[–] Witchfire@lemmy.world 10 points 3 weeks ago

As someone who's played XCom, a 1.5% chance of a bad thing (questionable) means it's gonna critically hit

[–] Rai@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 3 weeks ago

As someone who played Ragnarok Online extensively, 1.5% for a single monster kill means I will never find that item.

Not to mention cards’ .01% drop rate ugh

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[–] TachyonTele@lemm.ee 18 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

Keep looking, there's got to be something out there that can hit us!

[–] shittydwarf@lemmy.dbzer0.com 8 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (3 children)

I'm not sure if you saw the recent news but we have a possible new mummy curse, never give up hope

[–] NocturnalMorning@lemmy.world 3 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Yeah, but mummies can be friendly.. asteroids are a sure thing. Just ask the dinosaurs.

[–] GreyEyedGhost@lemmy.ca 1 points 3 weeks ago

"Hey, little guy, is an asteroid gonna kill us all?"

Cluck cluck!

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[–] RizzRustbolt@lemmy.world 2 points 3 weeks ago

There's always a chance that we can hit by a gamma-ray burst.

[–] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 16 points 3 weeks ago (5 children)

Everyone hoping there's still a chance, you need to remember... this is only a city-killer asteroid.

We need to hope for a much bigger asteroid.

[–] Wahots@pawb.social 7 points 3 weeks ago (4 children)

As long as it falls on the right city, it would do the entire world a massive, once in 500 years favor.

[–] Strawberry@lemmy.blahaj.zone 6 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

Unfortunately North America doesn't fall under the possible impact zone

[–] samus12345@lemm.ee 4 points 3 weeks ago

More proof that there's no god.

[–] itslilith@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 points 3 weeks ago

We have a few years to improve our asteroid deflection capabilities to change that

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[–] Spacehooks@reddthat.com 4 points 3 weeks ago

Would have been funny if it hit Buenos aires

[–] NotSteve_@lemmy.ca 3 points 3 weeks ago

If the alien movies serve us correctly, this is luckily going to hit the USA; possibly Washington DC directly.

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 2 points 3 weeks ago

If it hit the middle of the ocean, it could be cool and nothing else.

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[–] vivi@slrpnk.net 14 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

Reminder that the asteroid is only large enough to destroy a city and, even given the rare chance of it hitting Earth, in all likelihood would land in the ocean and cause no damage. It's not a doomsday asteroid

[–] match@pawb.social 18 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

imagine if it falls and perfectly annihilates the trump administration though

[–] marcos@lemmy.world 6 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Unfortunately, Washington is outside of the possible impact zone. (Well, Washington in Brazil is inside, but it's not about that one.)

[–] Wahots@pawb.social 2 points 3 weeks ago

DART successfully moved an astroid that was probably way bigger!

[–] scaramobo@lemmynsfw.com 1 points 3 weeks ago

Here you simulate some of the effects. Pretty fun to drop an asteroid on some asshat from my youth's house. Less fun when it wiped out my entire city and evaporated my parents. Welp.. can't have it all I guess. https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/

[–] Cryan24@lemmy.world 11 points 3 weeks ago

Well, that's disappointing..

[–] starman2112@sh.itjust.works 11 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 children)

Can we please not post daily updates? This is still 7 years away

[–] Zachariah@lemmy.world 4 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)
[–] starman2112@sh.itjust.works 3 points 3 weeks ago

I am down to have monthly updates for the next few years, weekly updates through 2031, and daily updates throughout 2032

I just feel like if we do daily updates for the next 7 years when it's in all likelihood going to miss us, we'll be too complacent when an asteroid does have an impact trajectory

[–] sunglocto@lemmy.dbzer0.com 10 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)
[–] LongLive@lemmy.world 6 points 3 weeks ago

🙏🙏🙏

[–] chiliedogg@lemmy.world 9 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Bets on it being totally ignored by the world if it turns out to be aimed at Africa?

[–] Syntha@sh.itjust.works 6 points 3 weeks ago

Africa actually does seem to be the most likely impact if it were to hit. The predicted impact would be along the equator.

[–] antlion@lemmy.dbzer0.com 9 points 3 weeks ago

Just give us the confidence interval and stop updating. We will know better in January 2029 once it has passed by and been tugged by our gravity and the moons.

[–] Microplasticbrain@lemm.ee 7 points 3 weeks ago

So you're telling me there's still a chance

[–] samus12345@lemm.ee 7 points 3 weeks ago
[–] Carvex@lemmy.world 6 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

Giant Meteor for Earth President 2032!

[–] crank0271@lemmy.world 4 points 3 weeks ago

Why wait? The best time would have been the dawn of civilization. The second best time is now.

[–] jj4211@lemmy.world 5 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

The global astronomical community expects the odds of an asteroid to hit Earth in December 2032 to eventually fall to zero.

I love how they make it seem like some insider expertise versus knowing basics of how percentages work.

[–] CanadaPlus@lemmy.sdf.org 6 points 3 weeks ago

I mean, without knowing what the number represents, it's not obvious why it goes up and then suddenly drops like this.

They basically predict a cross-section of places it could go through, which shrinks with improved data. If the Earth is still inside, that makes it's share go up. Eventually, it hits an edge and the share drops to zero suddenly

[–] Canadian_Cabinet@lemmy.ca 5 points 3 weeks ago

Damn. The bugs need to up their accuracy

[–] Randomgal@lemmy.ca 5 points 3 weeks ago

Dontgivemehope.meme

[–] ms_lane@lemmy.world 4 points 3 weeks ago
[–] Zorque@lemmy.world 2 points 3 weeks ago

Is this the new seven minutes to midnight? We're 1.5% to asteroid.

[–] Splitwood@lemmy.world 2 points 3 weeks ago

The way the world is going, it might not be a bad thing if it hits us.

[–] scaramobo@lemmynsfw.com 2 points 3 weeks ago

There is this fun toy see/calculate the potential effect of any asteroid collision: https://neal.fun/asteroid-launcher/

If it hits any city, that is wiped out. If it hit anything else, chances are damages are moderate.

[–] Generic_Idiot@lemm.ee 2 points 3 weeks ago
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