Even if ai took over 90% of all coding work, that still wouldn't affect more than maybe two hours a day.
Wait until AI start to summarize meetings into email
This is basically a thing now with how good transcription become, it's wonderful
Yes, but your bosses don't know/understand that, why pay you when they can have 3 interns & AI for freeeeeeeeeeee???
The bosses will figure it out when they never receive a working product.
Our team lead recently sent out two fresh juniors to tackle a task, with no senior informed. And of course, they were supposed to build it in Python, even though they had no experience with it, because Python is just so easy. Apparently, those juniors had managed to build something that was working ...on one machine, at some point.
On the day when our team lead wanted to show it to the customer, the two juniors were out of house (luckily for them) and no one knew where a distribution of that working state was. The code in the repo wouldn't compile and seemed to be missing some commits.
So, a senior got pulled in to try to salvage it, but the juniors hadn't set up proper dependency management, unit tests, logging, distribution bundling, nor documentation. And the code was spaghetti, too. Honestly, could have just started over fresh.
Our team lead was fuming, but they've been made to understand that this was not the fault of the juniors. So, yeah, I do think on that day, they found some new appreciation for seniors.
Heck, even I found new appreciation for what we do. All of that stuff is just the baseline from where we start a project and you easily forget that it's there, until it's not.
Writing the actual code is the easy part. Thinking about what to write and how to organize it so it doesn't become spaghetti is the hard part and what being a good developer is all about.
We do this every 15 years. For anyone less than 15 years into their career, welcome to the party.
Let's see if I can save you some energy:
It turns out that the last mile to a successful product delivery is still really fucking hard, and this magic bullet tool also didn't solve that.
Now... Am I talking about...?
Edit: Formatting for readability.
I mean honestly for things like tech, the jobs are going away due to these innovations, just piecemeal. Each of these innovations have shaved hours off of projects. Now someone's salary might be the same and they might still have to go into the office 40hrs a week (or be just as productive working from home, go figure) but the actual work they're doing is that much easier than it used to be, they might only have to work 4 hours a day now to accomplish what might have taken 2 days in the past.
Sure, certain companies put more demand on employees than others, and as you mentioned there are still human components to the system that remain untouched by technology, but if the tech world was honest with itself tech employees do far less work now than they did 10-20 years ago, disregarding the general expansion of the tech industry. I'm just talking about individual jobs.
Of course I don't think those employees should be making less. I think if we innovate so much that a person's job disappears we should be able to recognize that that person still deserves to be clothed and fed as if they still had that job.
Yes, except for the fact that the flip side of those is that software, almost by definition, is automating away jobs in other industries.
So when it gets easier / cheaper to write software, other industries will spend an increasing amount on it to replace their workers. That's one of the reasons the software industry has continued to grow, even though it's gotten easier to write.
No, my salary didn't go down, relative to inflation.
I'm calling bullshit on that one.
Everybody's salary except executives has gone down relative to inflation going all the way back the the 80s.
lol, I'd love to see the fucking ruin of the world we'd live in if current LLMs replaced senior developers. Maybe it'll happen some day, but in the meantime it's job security! I get to fix all of the bugfuck crazy issues generated by my juniors using Copilot and ChatGPT.
So much hallucinated crap and shoddy answers. Just because it was AI generated doesn't mean it was a good solution
There is a reason Microsoft has branded it copilot...
Headline: airline fires every second pilot; says the copilot is good enough to fly the machine.
One of my uni lecturers does the whole "You are out of a job" thing. He's a smart guy but he's barley written a line of code in his life. This comes up frequently and everytime I ask him "Get CHATGPT to write fizz buzz in X86 ASM." Without fail it will crash when trying to build everytime. This technology is very advanced but I find people get it to the the simplest tasks and then expect it to solve the most complex ones.
I tried using AI tools to do some cleanup and refactoring of some legacy embedded C code and was curious if it could do any optimization or knew any clever algorithms.
It's pretty good at figuring out the function of the code and adding comments, it did some decent refactoring of some sections to make them more readable.
It has no clue about how to work in a resource constrained environment or about the main concepts that separate embedded from everything else. Namely that it has to be able to run "forever", operate in realtime on a constant flow of sensor data, and that nobody else is taking care of your memory management.
It even explained to me that we could do input filtering by using big arrays to do simple averaging on a device with only 1kB RAM, or use a long long for a never-reset accumulator without worrying about what will happen because "it will be years before it overflows".
AI buddy, some of these units have run for decades without a power cycle. If lazy coders start dumping AI output into embedded systems the whole world is going to get a lot more glitchy.
This is how AI is a threat to humanity. Not because it will choose to act against us, but because people will trust what it says without question and base huge decisions on faulty information.
I was helping someone with their programming homework, every time copilot suggested anything he just blindly added it, and every time i had to ask him "and why do you need those lines? What do they do?", and he could never answer...
Sometimes those lines made sense, other times they were completely irrelevant to the problem, but he just add the suggestions on reflex without even reading them
It'll be like when we were all supposed to lose our jobs to outsourcing
And those juniors don't realize they've set themselves up to be forever-juniors since they aren't learning how to do the basics themselves.
I had to pull aside a developer to inform him that he "would be" violating our national security by pasting code online to an AI and that there were potentially repercussions far beyond his job.
He's a lot slower now, but the code is better.
Being a programmer is a lot like being a tradesperson. A tradesperson has a lot of flexibility in what they can do. They can work for a company, work freelance, or start their own business.
Programming gives you the same flexibility, the most important bit being that you can do it for yourself.
AI is going to struggle with larger complex tasks for a long time coming. While you can go to it and say 'write me a script to convert a png to a jpg' you can't go to it and say 'Write me a suite of tools to support business X' or 'make me a fun and creative game' A good programmer isn't going to be out of work for a long time.
Most of the work software developers do is comprehending the problem, formulating a solution that addresses the problem, and doing it in a maintainable, performant, and security conscious manner.
I think AI can write a killer isEven() method, I think it's shit at everything I listed... it's extremely shit at being security conscious, any dev can tell you that it's easier to write code and confirm it's following best security practices then it is to review someone's code and confirm it's following best security practices... I think AI actively makes it harder to have confidence in security.
The first real part of my job I think AI will help with is performance tuning. We're not there yet but I think we're not unimaginably far from being able to give an AI a working but slow function and have a computer spin up a million randomized test inputs and outputs... then start scrambling the algorithm in a plethora of ways and testing the performance while confirming that the test cases pass.
Then again, you'll need to confirm the algorithm is still secure - but I think the realm of performance is the first place we'd see a tool that I'd demand a license for.
It literally cannot come up with novel solutions because it's goal is to regurgitate the most likely response to a question based on training data from the internet. Considering that the internet is often trash and getting trashier, I think LLMs will only get worse over time.
AI has poisoned the well it was fed from. The only solution to get a good AI moving forward is to train it using curated data. That is going to be a lot of work.
On the other hand, this might be a business opportunity. Selling curated data to companies that want to make AIs.
I said this a while ago but you know how we have "pre-atomic" steel? We are going to have pre-LLM data sets.
The reason why chat gpt 3.5 is still great for anything previous to it's cutoff date. It's not constantly being updated with new garbage
Low-background steel, also known as pre-war steel, is any steel produced prior to the detonation of the first nuclear bombs in the 1940s and 1950s. Typically sourced from ships (either as part of regular scrapping or shipwrecks) and other steel artifacts of this era, it is often used for modern particle detectors because more modern steel is contaminated with traces of nuclear fallout.[1][2]
Very interesting, today I learned.
Also the more the internet is swept with AI generated content, the more future datasets will be trained on old AI output rather than on new human input.
Humans are also now incentivized to safeguard their intellectual property from AI to keep a competitive advantage.
Who do they think will be using the AI?
AI threatens to harm a lot about programming, but not the existence/necessity of programmers.
Particularly, AI may starve the development of open source libraries. Which, ironically, will probably increase the need for employed programmers as companies accrue giant piles of shoddy in-house code that needs maintaining.
I can't wait for my future coworkers who will be coding with AI without actually understanding the fundamentals of the language they're coding in. It's gonna get scary.
I guarantee you have coworkers right now coding without understanding the fundamentals of the language they're coding in. Reusing code you don't understand doesn't change if you stole it from Stack Overflow, or you stole it from Chat-GPT9.
I have no other skills that would pay anywhere close to what this career pays. I'd need to go back to school and become a surgeon or something. I don't think they let people become surgeons at 50 years old, and I don't have the energy for an internship and residency. I'm just hanging on and hoping that it doesn't all vanish in the next few years. I'm also spending time learning how to leverage AI, since I think that'll put me a step ahead. Good luck to all of us, we're going to need it!
Any gains from LLM now would barely offset the complexity bloat introduced in enterprise applications in the last decade alone. And that’s not even taking into account the sins of the past that are only hidden behind the topsoil lair of cargo cult architecture.
I feel pretty secure in my job, because in the future I’ll talk to the customers so the AI doesn’t have to instead of the engineers.
Didn't ChatGPT become very bad recently? It used to give really working code but now it gets things wrong and doesn't follow context. It gives code but when you ask it to improve by give more context, it ignores the previous answer and give wrong code.
It even sometimes answers by saying it does not have the answer for questions that it answered few months ago.
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