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this post was submitted on 19 Jul 2023
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Serious question: Would he really have that much of an impact?
There was zero chance that West Virginia was ever going to vote for Biden anyway. None. So it's not like him being able to win his home state is going to cost Biden any votes. If anything, he'd cost Trump some votes. The way I look at it is either he's going to win a state that Biden never had a chance of winning in the first place, he's going to lose to both Biden and Trump and accomplish nothing, or he'll win the state so Trump doesn't get the votes and then win precisely 0 other states, again hurting Trump by costing him W. Va's 4 Electoral College votes. Strictly looking at West Virginia, Manchin being in the race either has no effect on Biden or could actually help Biden by sabotaging West Virginia enough to tilt it to him.
He's only going to matter in swing states, and even then I think his impact would be limited. Biden would lose the right-leaning swing voters who might hold their noses and vote for Manchin because Trump is just that bad, but I think that population is extremely small. Left-leaning swing voters who are unsatisfied with Biden aren't going to vote for Manchin because they know that a vote for Manchin is essentially a vote for Trump, and I doubt there are too many people out there saying "I'd vote for any Democrat but Biden" or otherwise vote for Manchin knowing full well it's a de-facto vote for Trump. They may not like Biden, but anyone involved in politics enough to consider a third party candidade isn't going to vote for a third party candidate knowing full well that it could lead to Trump back in the White House.
I also don't think that he's simply all that popular outside of his home state. He comes off as your stereotypical old man yelling at a cloud, and has about as much of a personality as sandpaper. I can't see him being endearing enough to enough swing voters to get them to vote for him knowing full well his chances of making it are 0% and could lead to Trump's re-election. The biggest problem Dems have with Biden is his age, and a 75 year old Manchin isn't going to be considered the solution to that problem.
I think his impact is going to be extremely limited and look a lot scarier than it actually is.
According to the article, the majority of people who voted third party in 2016 voted for Biden in 2020. If they're lured away by a Manchin/Huntsman ticket, that could affect Biden's chances.
Probably because they knew throwing their vote to a third party candidate in 2020 would be a de-facto vote for Trump. They'll probably think the same way again. I'd be concerned if the leading GOP candidates were anyone other than Trump or DeSantis. But I think a lot of the swing voters will continue to vote for Biden, even if they have to hold their nose to do it, because they don't want Trump back in office.
Who the fuck would vote for a Manchin/Huntsman ticket?
"The parties are both the same" enlightened centrist types.
Manchin/Hunstman: If you think Reps/Dems are the same, we're even more the same than they are.
Those people vote R.
Plenty of them vote third party like fools.
I wish we had a system where third party candidates were viable instead of a waste of vote. It wouldn’t solve all the issues, but would at least give a measure of control back to the voters.
Lured away by the guy who consistently stepped up to be the detractor to Biden delivering on all the meaningful campaign promises? While I think this was an intentional partnership between the two, I don’t see Manchin luring away any 3rd party voters at all.
I think Manchin would lure independents who don't like Trump but would vote for Trump over Biden. That's probably a small group, but he still might steal more from Trump than Biden.
Those aren’t independents, those are conservatives in denial. Biden is the Democratic Party incarnate, for all its faults and foibles. If they’d rather vote for a traitorous, unashamed self-serving conman over what amounts to the avatar of status quo, they were never going to vote for any Democrat regardless of their position. That makes it entirely clear which side they’re on, even if they claim not to be on one.
Many of the independents that voted for Biden out of necessity were upset that he wasn’t further left, not that he wasn’t further right. That, or they were people who traditions voted R but were so disgusted with Trump that they voted against him out of necessity.
Edit: Corrected a thing.
As a lifelong independent, I really can't stand how the left has begun calling all independents conservatives in denial these last couple years. I'm practically a socialist. I just think Democrats largely suck, too, so I'll vote for them, but I'm not going to pretend to be one of them.
I typed out probably a dozen different replies of all kinds to you, but ultimately decided against posting any of them because on reflection they could all be seen as negative.
So rather than that, I'll say you raise a valid point and I apologize for my previous statement. I think you and I could probably see eye to eye on a lot of subjects.
I suspect we would. I'm fortunate that I don't have to register with a party to vote in their primaries, so I can happily remain registered as independent unless/until a better party comes along and gains traction.