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We Regret to Inform You That Joe Manchin Is Flirting With a Presidential Run (jezebel.com)

submitted 1 year ago by FlyingSquid@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

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[-] Nightwingdragon@lemmy.world 24 points 1 year ago

Serious question: Would he really have that much of an impact?

There was zero chance that West Virginia was ever going to vote for Biden anyway. None. So it's not like him being able to win his home state is going to cost Biden any votes. If anything, he'd cost Trump some votes. The way I look at it is either he's going to win a state that Biden never had a chance of winning in the first place, he's going to lose to both Biden and Trump and accomplish nothing, or he'll win the state so Trump doesn't get the votes and then win precisely 0 other states, again hurting Trump by costing him W. Va's 4 Electoral College votes. Strictly looking at West Virginia, Manchin being in the race either has no effect on Biden or could actually help Biden by sabotaging West Virginia enough to tilt it to him.

He's only going to matter in swing states, and even then I think his impact would be limited. Biden would lose the right-leaning swing voters who might hold their noses and vote for Manchin because Trump is just that bad, but I think that population is extremely small. Left-leaning swing voters who are unsatisfied with Biden aren't going to vote for Manchin because they know that a vote for Manchin is essentially a vote for Trump, and I doubt there are too many people out there saying "I'd vote for any Democrat but Biden" or otherwise vote for Manchin knowing full well it's a de-facto vote for Trump. They may not like Biden, but anyone involved in politics enough to consider a third party candidade isn't going to vote for a third party candidate knowing full well that it could lead to Trump back in the White House.

I also don't think that he's simply all that popular outside of his home state. He comes off as your stereotypical old man yelling at a cloud, and has about as much of a personality as sandpaper. I can't see him being endearing enough to enough swing voters to get them to vote for him knowing full well his chances of making it are 0% and could lead to Trump's re-election. The biggest problem Dems have with Biden is his age, and a 75 year old Manchin isn't going to be considered the solution to that problem.

I think his impact is going to be extremely limited and look a lot scarier than it actually is.

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 9 points 1 year ago

According to the article, the majority of people who voted third party in 2016 voted for Biden in 2020. If they're lured away by a Manchin/Huntsman ticket, that could affect Biden's chances.

[-] Nightwingdragon@lemmy.world 12 points 1 year ago

Probably because they knew throwing their vote to a third party candidate in 2020 would be a de-facto vote for Trump. They'll probably think the same way again. I'd be concerned if the leading GOP candidates were anyone other than Trump or DeSantis. But I think a lot of the swing voters will continue to vote for Biden, even if they have to hold their nose to do it, because they don't want Trump back in office.

[-] themeatbridge@lemmy.world 7 points 1 year ago

Who the fuck would vote for a Manchin/Huntsman ticket?

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 14 points 1 year ago

"The parties are both the same" enlightened centrist types.

[-] dudinax@programming.dev 4 points 1 year ago

Manchin/Hunstman: If you think Reps/Dems are the same, we're even more the same than they are.

[-] StarServal@kbin.social 3 points 1 year ago

Those people vote R.

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 4 points 1 year ago

Plenty of them vote third party like fools.

[-] StarServal@kbin.social 3 points 1 year ago

I wish we had a system where third party candidates were viable instead of a waste of vote. It wouldn’t solve all the issues, but would at least give a measure of control back to the voters.

[-] crusa187@lemmy.ml 4 points 1 year ago

Lured away by the guy who consistently stepped up to be the detractor to Biden delivering on all the meaningful campaign promises? While I think this was an intentional partnership between the two, I don’t see Manchin luring away any 3rd party voters at all.

[-] dudinax@programming.dev 2 points 1 year ago

I think Manchin would lure independents who don't like Trump but would vote for Trump over Biden. That's probably a small group, but he still might steal more from Trump than Biden.

[-] StarServal@kbin.social 4 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Those aren’t independents, those are conservatives in denial. Biden is the Democratic Party incarnate, for all its faults and foibles. If they’d rather vote for a traitorous, unashamed self-serving conman over what amounts to the avatar of status quo, they were never going to vote for any Democrat regardless of their position. That makes it entirely clear which side they’re on, even if they claim not to be on one.

Many of the independents that voted for Biden out of necessity were upset that he wasn’t further left, not that he wasn’t further right. That, or they were people who traditions voted R but were so disgusted with Trump that they voted against him out of necessity.

Edit: Corrected a thing.

[-] Drusas@kbin.social 2 points 1 year ago

As a lifelong independent, I really can't stand how the left has begun calling all independents conservatives in denial these last couple years. I'm practically a socialist. I just think Democrats largely suck, too, so I'll vote for them, but I'm not going to pretend to be one of them.

[-] StarServal@kbin.social 1 points 1 year ago

I typed out probably a dozen different replies of all kinds to you, but ultimately decided against posting any of them because on reflection they could all be seen as negative.
So rather than that, I'll say you raise a valid point and I apologize for my previous statement. I think you and I could probably see eye to eye on a lot of subjects.

[-] Drusas@kbin.social 2 points 1 year ago

I suspect we would. I'm fortunate that I don't have to register with a party to vote in their primaries, so I can happily remain registered as independent unless/until a better party comes along and gains traction.

[-] StarServal@kbin.social 20 points 1 year ago

Manchin will never get the DNC nomination if he runs as D, he’ll never get enough votes if he runs as a third party, and he’ll never get the Trump votes if he runs as R. There’s no way Manchin can become president in this current political landscape. He would need politics to return to the 80s to have a chance at any kind of success; when the parties weren’t so inflamed and divided.

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 30 points 1 year ago

He doesn't want to be president, he wants to be a spoiler.

[-] Seasoned_Greetings@lemmy.world 15 points 1 year ago

That seems like exactly what that guy would do. The only problem with that is you have to actually be an attractive candidate to be a spoiler. If he runs, he's not really taking any votes from Biden because nobody who votes Biden is going to consider a party-line traitor like Manchin. If anything he'll be spoiling the republican candidates who are looking for a less batshit alternative. But then again, that's not how primaries work.

[-] hark@lemmy.world 3 points 1 year ago

He's probably doing it to collect a paycheck from the people paying him to be a spoiler.

[-] FlyingSquid@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

You don't get to a position like Manchin's without having a massive ego. He already enjoys being a spoiler in the senate. It's his thing now. He's the Democrats' Rand Paul. So extending that to a presidential race makes sense from his perspective.

[-] Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world 0 points 1 year ago

The only problem with that is you have to actually be an attractive candidate to be a spoiler. If he runs, he’s not really taking any votes from Biden because nobody who votes Biden is going to consider a party-line traitor like Manchin.

I'm not so sure. Centrists have been defending Manchin ever since he killed BBB for them. I also recall 2008, when centrist Clinton supporters formed a PAC to oppose Obama and support McCain after he won the nomination.

Meanwhile, Biden has been trying to get student loan forgiveness, something centrists oppose and progressives support, and worst of all made it clear with his second forgiveness plan that he wasn't going to just announce that he tried and never try again.

I'm sure there are some centrists who would crawl over broken glass for a chance to drink the bilge water from Manchin's houseboat. 2008 showed that centrists will not only jump ship, they'll organize. Progressives have never formed a PAC to support a Republican like centrists did.

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.one 11 points 1 year ago

As a 3rd party? LOL, please do! Let him find out being a 1%'er also applies to political polling.

[-] Irv@midwest.social 7 points 1 year ago

Being skeptical of Democrats is not a political agenda, but that's what these centrists run on. It's pathetic and achieves nothing

[-] geekzapoppin@lemmy.world 5 points 1 year ago

As a West Virginian, I'm sorry. Not only is Manchin going to run for president, it's looking like our homunculus of a governor will take his spot in the Senate. I both love my state and hate my state. It's harder and harder to continue to live here as a Democrat.

[-] fox2263@lemmy.world 4 points 1 year ago

Not want

[-] TokenBoomer@lemmy.world 2 points 1 year ago

It’s like the frog meme, but with Joe Manchin. It works.

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this post was submitted on 19 Jul 2023

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