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this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2024
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I don't want to be a doomer, but I do kind of feel like climate change is going to get worse and worse and we will pay a terrible price.
I'm not one of those "civilization will end" types, but I think there will be a lot more refugees and a lot more war. If the Himalayan ice caps melt, a lot of Asia is very fucked.
There's a pretty big difference between "it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better", and "it's already over, we're all fucked".
The original comment presents things poorly: we are past several "points of no return", but saying the point of no return implies there's nothing to be done.
Additionally the last point is... pretty much entirely wrong. We have absolutely made significant and noticeable progress against climate change. It's not enough yet, but it's absolutely not nothing.
I understand that. I'm just suggesting that doomers might not be 100% wrong because I think a lot of bad stuff is going to happen, so we shouldn't just dismiss dire predictions entirely.
I just don't think this will be the end of our species or even human civilization everywhere. But in some places? Quite possibly.
Yeah I agree, I just don't call "stuff's gonna be bad" doomerism (it's pretty clear at this point). I call "this is the end and there's nothing we can do" doomerism.
Ok, fair enough.
If everyone's living in refugee and migrant camps, how is that not a collapse of civilization?
Well, for one thing, the vast majority of civilization does not depend on the Himalayas for water. But many people do.
Climate change and global warming are not localized to the Himalayas.
Okay? I still never said everyone would live in refugee and migrant camps...
I’m not specifically saying that suddenly the planet is going to swallow up humanity as a whole. But, as you said — climate refugees — plus an uncertain food and water supply, and disastrous weather are going to cause humanity to fight amongst themselves. We will end up destroying ourselves to “survive.”
I think there will be plenty of places where life will go on without everyone having to till the soil. But there will be a lot more death and pain.
The death and pain will come from the people in bad areas attacking those in the good ones.
That is not something you can predict with any certainty. That may happen and it may not. We can't know at this point. But there will definitely be a price paid for our continued fossil fuel use.
Based on what you know of humanity and its history, where would you place your bet?
I do not pretend to know the future.
I’m not asking you be clairvoyant. I’m asking you to make an educated guess on the outcome of humanity based on what you know about humanity.
You can refuse, but just say you’re refusing.
What I know about humanity is that we spent the vast amount of our history as small bands of nomadic hunter-gatherers, so any prediction you make is based on a very tiny fraction of our history.
Tiny, but important. Question still stands.
The answer to the question is that civilization is an unnatural state for humanity to be in, so it is too unpredictable at present. And since there has never been a global civilization collapse, in part because there has never been a global threat like this and in part because the world has never been globalized like this, we are in completely unknown territory.
You are the correct one here, I think tsonfeir is maybe trying to riddle you or something: the truth is at some point the sun will extend out beyond Earth and any civilization left here will die out, human or otherwise?
Not sure why that is that interesting to them or why they are demanding you say it.
Moat people in the first world will be fine at the small cost of thousands of dead poor people. But then again never mind the poor people.