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this post was submitted on 20 Apr 2024
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Kinda surprised the Russians have any to spare.
Given that Iran paid for them years ago and is now in a bit more of a tense situation than usual, I have a feeling Iran is saying to Russia that they'd better deliver or they'll stop selling stuff to Russia. Iran will be fine if Russia loses to Ukraine, so they can afford to make that threat
This seems good all around to me. Russia has fewer planes to attack Ukraine and Israel ends up focusing more of its resources on the Iranian military instead of Gazan civilians. A bit of a "why don't you pick on someone your own size" situation.
The Iranians have been churning out literal thousands of Shahed drones for Russia to shoot into Ukraine. I’m pretty sure this was the other half of the deal they made.
I was going to say the same thing. Maybe these are the especially shitty jets that are even shittier than their normal shitty jets?
SU-35s are legemdarily good like their older SU-27 brothers. They're arguably the best Gen 4 aircraft in the world now. In general,.Soviet and Russian aircraft have been very formidable.
What you're confusing "shittier" with is after Sukhoi hand the aircraft over to the Russian military. At which point poor selection and training hop in, strapped with janky or old weaponry, given orders by notoriously bad tacticians. And suddenly your fancy "Gen 4.5" aircraft is getting downed by anything with a half modern missile in the tube.
Toe-to-toe it'll be Israel's F-16s—which will need modern configs—that will present a challenge. Certainly not the F-15s. But the real contender will be SAMs which I imagine are the latest fancy American ones.
Israel has 36 F-35s. You can argue about the cost efficiency of the design if you want, but the actual result will be a bunch of dead SU-35s, not a fight between roughly equivalent Gen 4 fighters.
Also, just saying, the American Generation 4.5 was the F-18, not the F-16. The F-16s were originally designed in 1976 (and America didn't sell the F-18s to everyone, while the F-16 is still arguably America's main fighter export)
The Super Hornets in particular are noted for being an actual 4.5 frame, sharing a lot of design features that would come to distinguish genuine Gen 5 fighters.
Only Australia and Kuwait, for some reason, were allowed to buy those sexy beasts.
The F-16s and F-15s have 4.5 versions though. They aren't stuck in the 1970's anymore than the F-18 Super is stuck in the 1990's.
Fair enough! There's no getting around the fact that the Hornets can load up a lot more ordinance and has better avionics just from being a bigger frame with more thrust, but the F-16s do have a baseline speed and maneuvering advantage.
The issue with Israel isn't the quality of their weapons and munitions. It's the quantity.
This article explains how they don't have many fighter pilots
Israel has something like 35000 people in it's air force. That's a tiny air force. Most of those people are going to be in some type of support role. The article talks about the most elite squadron being only 40 people. Losing one person is arguably a bigger loss than the plane. After all, doesn't matter if you have a plane if no one can fly it
That's very relative. While it may seem tiny from US or Chinese POV it's more than the whole militaries of many European nations even twice as big as Israel.
Oh, that's interesting, I didn't know that, but those 40 would be the guys flying the 36 F-35s, you know? They're just not going to lose that many of them to SU-35S.
And they can protest the Palestinian genocide, because Hamas doesnt have an air force, but if Iran starts sending in bombing missions they'll be in the air.
You ... Uh ... Don't think Israel's F-15's are up to the task?
Well… yes and no. Anything made in Russia over the last 2 years likely has electronics that are rather suspect. I wouldn’t be shocked to learn that some of those new flankers Iran is getting have some repurposed Whirlpool dishwasher chips squirreled away in there somewhere.
Russia's share of the global arms export market was in a gradual decline before Ukraine, and it's been in a virtual freefall post invasion.
This is the kind of PR they need for the long term financial survival of their big ticket weapons programs. So whether they can spare these planes militarily, might be a secondary consideration behind financial longevity concerns.
Maybe Iran mentioned their next Shehed shipment would have to wait until the jets got there.
Jets are not a winning strategy in Ukraine. Only grinding it out can achieve anything.
Hope the recent aid puts another nail into that strategy.
What do you think the primary purpose of multirole fighers has been in the Ukraine war?
They're primarily used as long range tactical and strategic bombing platforms, which is pretty important in a war of attrition.
Same here. It may be a plan for Israel and Iran to go at it. That would take support from Ukraine.