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Kremlin prepares Russians for 10-year war with complete destruction of Ukraine - ISW (newsukraine.rbc.ua)

submitted 4 months ago by Beaver@lemmy.ca to c/ukraine@sopuli.xyz

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[-] mozz@mbin.grits.dev 61 points 4 months ago

Dude you’ve been doing this for 2 years and the front line is still a 30 minute drive from the border.

Who can say what might happen if Trump wins, but while a stalemate followed by a peace agreement where Ukraine still loses Crimea and etc seems possible, a complete military victory over all of Ukraine seems like pure fantasy. Y’all can prepare the Russian people for whatever you want, but if you can’t take the land, it’s not gonna help.

[-] KevonLooney@lemm.ee 31 points 4 months ago

And the Russian army is facing the same problem that Germany and Napoleon faced in their invasion of Ukraine. When you gain territory, unfortunately you only end up with some bombed out towns in Ukraine.

Napoleon tried to blitz all the way to Moscow. He even took the city. But you just end up with a frozen wasteland. Ukraine is only valuable because of the people there. There's nothing else to take.

[-] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 13 points 3 months ago

False, its soil is incredibly fertile and their agricultural exports influence food prices across the globe.

That's beside the point though.

[-] KevonLooney@lemm.ee 10 points 3 months ago

But you can't loot that. There's nothing that can be taken or enjoyed by a Russian oligarch. No one is excited about having a dacha in a Ukrainian wheat field.

[-] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 9 points 3 months ago

I did say it was beside the point. The invasion was an unforced error caused by the fact that Putin has surrounded himself with far right yes men. He's fucked himself, and he's dead if he admits it. His fear of color revolutions is slowly but surely being made into a self fulfilling prophecy. Stalin was a paranoid too, just Russia being Russia.

[-] lemmyvore@feddit.nl 1 points 3 months ago

I still wonder what would have happened if instead of declaring war to Ukraine he'd have continued to invade little Russian-friendly areas here and there around the Black Sea and Caspian. Probably nobody would have done absolutely anything.

[-] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 14 points 3 months ago

Remember, this was supposed to be the easy part of his plan. If he conquers and stays, he will face a determined insurgency. If he installs a puppet and leaves, they will be quickly deposed. If he thinks to keep only part, he will have to keep fighting for it.

[-] NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 3 points 3 months ago

An insurgency that's had years to store weapons and make plans instead of 3 days.

[-] Mihies@programming.dev 2 points 3 months ago

Yeah, who knows. When Biden stopped sending support for six months, Ukraine had it rough, they were backtracking (they still are one some fronts), lost Avdivka and other fronts. Germany announced they will halve the support, fascism in EU is also rising, which means less support. It's a battle of attrition and if enough support is withdrawn, it doesn't bode well for Ukraine. On the other hand, if there is substantial support for years to come, Russia might have big problems. In any case, a bigger breakthrough on some front might make a huge difference and tip the special operation in one's favor.

[-] Ooops@feddit.org 10 points 3 months ago

Germany announced they will halve the support

No. While that is a popular narrative in media living of enragement bait and doom scrolling, Germany has announced nothing the like. They have a premilinary budget plan with a fixed 4 billion reserved for Ukraine, the exact same amount that was in the preliminary budget last year. That is with a higher budget for their military from which a lot of Ukraine support came directly and with Ukraine now getting 50 billion covered by the interests of Russian money frozen.

[-] bradorsomething@ttrpg.network 10 points 3 months ago

Biden was sneaking aid through while congress sat on its hands.

[-] Mihies@programming.dev 2 points 3 months ago

Yeah, minor stuff. I'm not saying Biden is at fault, it was clearly GOP. It merely happened during his time.

[-] Aurenkin@sh.itjust.works 50 points 4 months ago

Damn and I thought my estimates were bad. Going from 3 days to 10 years is a pretty big difference and that's assuming they can even achieve their objectives in 10 years which seems doubtful.

[-] massive_bereavement@fedia.io 26 points 4 months ago

"When will you be done with the report?" "I guess by next Friday."

Ten years later...

[-] Rusty@lemmy.ca 3 points 3 months ago

Putin needs to work on his time management skills. I've heard there's a good place in the Hague that can help him with that, it's called ICJ.

[-] Lewo@lemmy.world 44 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

some outrageous crazy statement about the war

it's from Medvedev, as usual

Can the press just stop paying attention to him? He doesn't hold any power, he gets to make no decisions, he was chosen to be Putin's seat-warmer in 2008 because he was considered to be a safe choice, with no real ambitions and was extremely easy to reel in. His position on the "security council" means nothing, he was put there specifically so he'd be in a hostile environment, being a random guy between the military, the FSB and the intelligence service. Not that the council itself is much more than a Putin's puppet. He became the biggest hawk as soon as the war started just in case anyone recalls some of his more "liberal" initiatives. In reality, there's only 3 things he's in charge of: a bottle, a shot glass and his telegram account.

[-] broken_chatbot@lemmy.world 16 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Couldn't agree more. Medvedev is just a miserable ex-"liberal" (and is probably now-an-alcoholic) trying to find his place in the Putin's wartime system after his reputation was killed by Putin's "castling" in 2012 and the film "He Is Not Dimon to You" in 2017. Nobody takes him seriously anymore in Russia.

[-] Burstar@lemmy.dbzer0.com 40 points 3 months ago

Laughable really. Russia has at most 2 years at the going rate of net depletion before completely running out of armour stores. Thinking you'd last another 8 without tanks, APCs, or artillery is crazy.

IMO this is them trying to manipulate a better peace deal and boy are they going to be disappointed.

[-] Valmond@lemmy.world 10 points 3 months ago

Yeah and that would be dragging the whole army to be killed in Ukraine, leaving russia undefended lol.

I think mid 2025 will be the real breaking point, with winter 2025 bringing the hammer down if it havent happened before.

[-] golli@lemm.ee 9 points 3 months ago

Yeah and that would be dragging the whole army to be killed in Ukraine, leaving russia undefended lol.

But the irony imo is that this wouldn't actually be a huge problem. Who would actively want to attack Russia?

Despite what they constantly claim, Nato really isn't interested in a conflict. And China already gets the resources they want at huge discounts, so why bother with another front when they have set their sights on Taiwan? That only leaves some internal minorities acting up, but it seems to me that those are the same people they are throwing into the meatgrinder that is the current conflict in Ukraine.

[-] Valmond@lemmy.world 4 points 3 months ago

NATO is a Defence cooperation, NATO don't want to attack anybody. At all.

Chine would like Manchuria, Japan some lost islands, and why not say Russia attacking Russia in a civil war.

[-] Burstar@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 points 3 months ago

Unlikely due to their constitution, but Japan has contested islands Russia gobbled up at the end of WW2 that they might like to reassert ownership of if it is easy enough.

[-] golli@lemm.ee 2 points 3 months ago

Yeah i guess that might be the most likely candidate for an opportunistic takeover.

Although their navy is the one thing Russia might not bother (or be able to) send to Ukraine. So that would still stay in the area, making it less likely.